Who’s Left..?

With so many coaches going with so many rookie midfielders this year, it seems relevant to consider who the downgrade targets are for later in the season. There have been so many youngsters played in the first five rounds, that it’s starting to look very thin indeed.

Ben Howlett – $77,800

Ben has already played two games and was very unlucky to get dropped after round two, but the fact is we haven’t seen him since. At 21, he is exactly the kind of mature age recruit you will want on your bench from rounds 19-22 during the finals. Having spent a few years in the WAFL, it is unlikely he will tire very much towards the end of the season. The only concern is that he was very impressive in the first couple of rounds, but still managed to get dropped. Since then, he hasn’t been able to break back in to a losing team. Even if he does get back in, there are no guarantees he’ll stay there.

Koby Stevens – $89,500

Given his ability to win clearances and contested ball, it is surprising that he hasn’t been brought in yet. Surely, he would be a handy experiment to make while Kerr is out injured. In fact, he might even be a good experiment when Kerr returns. He was in the best last week but is competing with Swift and Shepperd at the moment. The concern here is his age and the abundance of quality midfielders that the over-compensating Eagles possess. His minutes and games are a good chance to be limited as they nurse him through his first season. I have little confidence that this kid will feature at the business end of the season, but there is no doubting his quality.

Sam Blease – $94,500

He is only this cheap because he broke his leg playing footy at school last year. Drafted in 2008 at pick 17, the Demons are very confidant he will eventually step in to their midfield in years to come. His weight (70kg) worries me, as he has already sustained an impact injury in his short career. However, the Demons good form makes this one a no-brainer. If he can break in to their midfield this year, he must be ready.

Jordan Gysberts – $117,500

This kid is an exceptional accumulator who enjoys the hard stuff. He was an emergency last week and would appear to be a great option. Given that they have held him back, there is no reason why he can’t come in and play the season out. I have a feeling this kid is the one to watch and he should debut sooner rather than later. He is better priced than his mates Scully and Trengove were before they played as well.

Mitchell Banner – $129,300

It would be a brave man to jump on board, given the way his form dropped off during the first three games of the season. However, DT packed full of very brave coaches. To his credit, he did manage a 79 in the first round and he wouldn’t be the first kid to slow down after a long pre-season. It is tempting to look at his 38 and disregard him, but the fact is that he is a ball-winner and that’s what he’ll do if he wins his spot back in the team. I think he a clever gamble that few will want to take.

Gary Rohan – $137,500

The problem with Gar is his ceiling. It’s difficult to see him averaging more than 55 if he gets in to the seniors. Don’t get me wrong, he’s just sort of player I love, but he doesn’t look ready to make big scores just yet. If he does play, I wouldn’t be surprised if they give him a shut-down role or drop him in a forward pocket. He should get his chance in the next few weeks once the Swans start losing to good teams. He is worth considering, but I wouldn’t want him on the field in round 22.

Luke Shuey – $140,100

It must pain the 36,214 coaches that have him, to know that his return should come right in the middle of downgrade season. He showed enough in his first two games to suggest that he’ll be hard to keep out of the team once fit. He is still cheap enough to make money out of as well. Like Blease, he is another high draft pick (18) to have broken his leg and wrecked 2009. The concern is that he will lose fitness with that knee injury and may not come back as strong.

Ben Cunnington – $141,500

I have a lot of time for Lingus. He had to well and truly earn his spot in the team last week, but then failed to deliver in a winning team. It’s not that he played badly, in fact, he offered a much-needed chop-out to Ziebell in the clearance work. He just handballed too much. Although it is understandable he would handball a lot while getting used to the pace of the seniors, he will need to rectify that in his second game if coaches are going to jump on. $141,500 is too much to pay for a bloke that enjoys the feel of leather on fist.

I’ve obviously only picked the players I rate highly, but as we all know, there are always obscure debuts later on in the season. My concern at the moment is whether you can count on those obscure players to help you through the finals. I expect most of the players I’ve named above to play sooner rather than later and I just don’t know if their will be much cheap quality left after the break.

The Riewoldt Situation

Some people love it when the most popular player goes down. I don’t. I have a complicated trading strategy in place that Riewoldt has now destroyed. It shouldn’t really change my policy that much, but it does. He was going to be the reliable rock that my team was built on for the year. I expected him to be captain occasionally while also relying on him to make my forward line look respectable. Ah well…

Below I have ranked forward line players in the order I think that they should be as replacements for Riewoldt. If you are yet to trade… enjoy.

1. Jonathan Brown

Has started the season in easily the best form of his career. I am buoyed by reports that he is in the best shape ever and he has certainly never started a season as hot as he has this one. The risk taken by Michael Voss in getting Fevola to the club has so far payed off in bags of goals. No-one is happier about the situation than Browny. Of course, there will be a few games where the opposition will focus more on Browny and Fev will be forced to be the match-winner, but I think I’d cop that. The big risk with Browny is injury. He appears to still be as heavy as he ever was and this makes him much more susceptible to niggles. The other element of this is that he will be targeted physically all year. I f he doesn’t sustain an impact injury which rules him out for a couple of weeks, he will most certainly still need to be rested at some point anyway – as per St Kilda and Geelong last year. He should still be the highest averaging forward by years end though. Straight swap.

2. Ryan O’Keefe

Ryan’s move in to the midfield last year has proved to be a master-stroke. Since then, he has become one of the elite midfielders in the game. There are few that can match him for pace and his height means that he gets many cheap marks. He also loves to tackle and has maintained his ability to kick goals while roaming all over the ground. Arguably, he could well be undervalued as well as his starting price was based on a last year and he only moved in to the midfield halfway through. The downside here is that Goodes is playing forward and O’Keefe could well swap roles with him if the Goodes experiment doesn’t work. Although, I do note many have still selected Goodes as dedicated forward – they have more courage than I.

3. Jared Brennan

Started the season on fire before being suspended just before a sizable price increase was about to take place. I suspect this is his year, but then I always suspect that about Brennan. He did amazingly well along with Mitch Clarke in the ruck last year and I think that would have done him good. Running around as an outside midfielder will surely be a piece of cake for him this year..? He is another that scores in many different areas as well. His 28 and 36 points from tackles alone in rounds one and two are what really stands out though. He’s just started the year angry and I’m very impressed.

4. Tom Rockliff

It’s up to you whether you want to leave Riewoldt on the bench for a week and see how Rockliff goes first, but I don’t think that’s necessary. This kid is goal-kicking midfielder that has been held back for a while. He was drafted late and has consequently received very little hype in his career, but he should be a star. I actually think he’ll average about 75 for the year and end up being a starting keeper. Big wraps I know, but even if I’m wrong, there’s still heaps of upside to this option. If you’ve loaded up on cheapy mids, this kid could free up the cash that allows you to upgrade them later.

5. Matthew Pavlich

Pavlich suffered from the similar problems to Hodge last year – his team needed him to perform a role due to injuries – and his scores suffered as a result. The team he is playing in this year should cause no such problems. The midfield has enough good players that he may not even get the tag occasionally, not that it would even worry him, he is a superstar. This year would appear to be free to roam the forward line and midfield as he pleases and he is also playing in a winning team. How long this lasts is anyones guess, but at this stage he looks cheap and tasty.

6. Cyril Rioli

I respect anyone that picks up Rioli. Especially after this report from this morning. However, he looked so good on the weekend that he still has to be considered by those with balls of steel. People who pick him will definitely be in the minority, but he’ll save you cash and he is capable of anything. This could be the last time he is available so cheap as well. Such a gutsy trade, I love it.

7. Steve Johnson

I am concerned about Stevie J’s body at the moment, he seems off, but he’s still scoring okay. I think he may still be a couple of weeks away from a better price. Although, he could just as easily destroy Port Adelaide this week. He has had some brilliant flashes of form from the first half of last year, but not consistently yet. On the upside, he is still a gun playing for Geelong and they aren’t going to stop losing any time soon.

8. Heath Grundy

Grundy could be totally unique money saver and his value means that he won’t have much pressure to score high, yet he has proven that he can.

9. Karl Peterson

Peterson is a gamble because his value has already started to rise, but I think he is clearly still way under. If you bought Scully or Trengove at this price, why wouldn’t you take Peterson now..?

10. Brent Harvey

Boomer is old and last week he had a point to prove. Unsure what his motivation will be this week. Not so sure he’ll be allowed to continue to play that role either. Still a superstar though and he is definitely a fair way quicker than Priddis.

*I have excluded Chapman from consideration because he is valued at much more than Riewoldt and also because of his old-rubber-band hamstrings. But yeah, if you’ve got the cash, knock yourself out. 🙂

God Junior & GC17

We have had nearly two weeks solid of articles talking about Ablett’s potential move to the Gold Coast and it’s starting to worry me. When I first found out players may have already signed on for the Gold Coast I immediately flagged my concerns to a couple of mates. Their response was that it couldn’t possibly affect Dream Team, but I now believe it is.

We now have Frank Costa coming out to explain Bomber Thompson’s erratic attitudes to the situation, but the simple fact is that he has lost his professionalism on the matter. He’s started shooting from the hip in a public forum about a personal decision that really should be respected no matter what Ablett decides.

There are few players, he may be the only one, to have reached the level of Gary over the past three to four years. The Cats have won two premierships in this time and I feel that his teammates, coaches, officials and supporters should all be very grateful for having enjoyed his talent for the time they’ve had him. He owes nothing, but Bomber doesn’t appear to feel the same way.

Make no mistake, this is a massive issue for the Cats and Thompson has created it.

If Gary has decided he wants to go to the Gold Coast, there is know way he can reveal that information now. Knowing that the coach disagrees so strongly with the decision will surely affect his performance. He’ll be worried about his teammates and supporters as well. How fans at the Cattery would react to such news is totally unpredictable, but I’m willing to bet that Thompson’s attitudes would have an influence.

You only need to look at Rodney Eade’s comments today for evidence that it could create issues.

My gut tells me that Thompson is trying to rush Gary’s choice because he feels an early decision is more likely to result in a win for the Cats. He’s playing with the fact that Ablett won’t want to play out the season if his mates think he is a traitor. What if Gary has already signed though..?

It’s seems very cavalier to put so much pressure on him when Thompson doesn’t know if he has signed. Maybe Thompson asked him face to face and Gary said he hasn’t..? In that case, Thompson has probably decided that he doesn’t want Gary in the team if he has lied to his face. Fair enough, I wouldn’t either, but I think a premiership is worth leaving that question unanswered for 27 weeks.

If Ablett comes out an announces he is sticking with the Cats, all well and good, but what if he doesn’t..? For the first time in the last three years, Gary Ablett looks like a risky proposition to me.

Gumby, Howlett, Pods & Bluddy Hodge

Matthew Knights has done us all a favour and indicated that Gumbleton and Howlett are certain starters this week for Essendon. In my opinion, this is even better news than being featured on the team-sheets as we won’t be second-guessing a late withdrawal if they are named on the bench. I think the certainty these two players offer will now shunt them ahead of other rookie priced options like Podsiadly and Banner. They also stated Hardingham is a chance, but I can’t give the same guarantee he won’t be a late withdrawal.  

Moving back to Podsiadly for just a second, I’ve got some real concerns about his round one prospects now. Most of the positive endorsement for him playing round one has tended to come from fellow players, not coaching staff. If I can read between the lines for second, it would appear that there may be a divide there. Thompson was said to be “coy” about Podsiadly’s chances today and I think he is really starting to look like a bit of gamble.  

No doubt he’ll get a game at some stage, but if you’re one of those people that want all rookies playing in the 1^st round, you should probably start looking elsewhere. I’m sure that the Cats match committee are just hoping Essendon will bring in an extra medium defender instead of a tall to cover him, but it’s adding to our nerves as well as the Bombers.  

I just want to say a quick word about Buddy and Hodge as well.  

Buddy had an amazing year in 2008, but last year was average. His form and role on the field was dictated heavily by the coaching staff. He was often found marauding around packs outside of 50 hunting for a clearance. It was a good technique because he is of no use up forward if the ball isn’t getting there and he does win clearances. With the injuries to Sewell, Cyril and Burgoyne I see no reason why they won’t use him like that again early on.  

The other problem is that he will always have games where he doesn’t get over 50. He is just that sort of player and the Hawks don’t look like matching their inside 50 numbers from 2008 again this year either. That premiership winning team was a great one, but Dew and Crawford are gone now. I’m not saying they can’t win the flag again, I just don’t think it likely. For Buddy to return to where he was, they really need to be that good.  

I know some people will point to his increased bulk last year, but I think the influence this had on his game was marginal. 

On Hodge, Gibson will set him free and I’m sure he’ll start tackling again in round one. He has been looking after himself a fair bit (playing soft) during the pre-season and I totally understand. The only concern I have with him is that he can do anything and the Hawks like to exploit this. Someone suggested he might be able to pinch-hit in the ruck early on, now that is crazy talk, but at the Hawks you have to consider it a possibility.

Defenders under 300K

I have compiled a list of all of the defenders I think should be considered. My only exclusion is that their value must be less than $300,000. Little separates premium backman and choices are usually based on personal affinities. I’ve compiled this list because I find the backline is usually where most people stuff up their teams.

I think it is also a good idea to encourage people to take a bit more of a punt on backman this year. There is a common opinion that there is very little value in the low and mid-range defenders, but I don’t believe that to be the case. It just takes a little more hard work to expose potential defenders as they get less exposure.

Bachar Houli – $297,900

Houli has always had the ability to become an elite Dream Teamer, but injuries have so far gotten in his way. He has set the world on fire in the pre-season, but he has managed to average about 69 in his two games. It’s a fair amount of money to gamble but it could pay off. His biggest upside is that I don’t believe he will depreciate.

Cale Hooker – $281,500

This poor fellah was thrown into the ruck as support for Ryder when Hille went down. He was certainly not ready for that responsibility, but still responded by averaging 64. I have a theory about rucking that it is bloody hard to do and that it can sometimes be the making of tall youngsters. This kid has averaged 73.3 and topped out with an unlikely 90 during the pre-season. He could well be the replacement for Fletcher at season’s end.

Harry O’brien – $273,000

Harry’s DT scoring average has increased every year for the last five, going from 38 to 44 to 55 to 62. He has been a shutdown defender so far in his career, but last year was absolutely terrible at it, conceding more goals than any other Collingwood player. However, he managed to maintain his spot in the team as a result extraordinary disposal efficiency, ranking second at the club. He is now part of the leadership group and Heath Shaw may move out of the backline on to a wing. All signs indicate the Magpies will want him to have more ball and his pre-season average is already 6 points up on last year.

Courtenay Dempsey – $266,000

Dempsey has been up and down in his three pre-season games, but he did manage a tonne in his first game. He had a breakout season last year, so it is a big ask for him to improve again, but I think he can. The Bombers will certainly want the ball in his hands, as he has excellent disposal and good pace.

Clancee Pearce – $246,600

Clancee is on the rookie list, but Freo have plenty of spots available. He started of the pre-season in blistering form, but has since tapered off. If upgraded he is going to be very popular, as his 97 and 88 have shown that he is capable of big scores.

Nick Malceski – $242,800

Like Pearce he started the pre-season in blistering form before tapering off. Some might say he is better value than Pearce, because he has done it before, but he is returning from a LARS knee reconstruction. The surgery affected his performance greatly last year and will take a while to win back the confidence of DT coaches. There are also rumors of a muscle strain, but they should be discounted if he is named for round one.

Matt Spangher – $238,500

Spangher showed everyone his potential in round 22 last year when he broke free of the shackles and scored a massive 117. Up until then he had only been seen as a shut-down defender, but scores like that cannot be fluked. He definitely has the ability, it’s just a matter of what role the coach wants him to play. He’s averaged 66.7 in the pre-season, it would be a shame to waste his talents on the oppositions best forward…

Andrejs Everitt – $237,300

Everitt seemed content with mediocrity last year and was consequently in and out of the team regularly. He also saved his best for round 22, scoring 83 against Collingwood before being dropped again for the finals. He pulled out a 79 in the GF of the NAB Cup as well, but his other three scores were once again mediocre. I know he can do it, I’m just not sure if he cares enough.

Paul Stewart – $208,400

Has had a very solid pre-season averaging 62. It’s a very good sign that he played every NAB game and I will be very surprised if he doesn’t play round one. Considering he will have Trengove breathing down his neck, he could be dropped a any time. I’m also a little concerned he hasn’t scored high enough to make worthy, although I do understand if others feel he is worth the punt.

Tadgh Kennelly – $204,700

It’s a very big problem that opposition coaches love tagging him, but he’s just so cheap. Even if he averages his usually disappointing 65, he’s still going to make somewhere between $60,00 and $100,000. As soon as he scores a 40 we are all going to be shattered. The sad part is we know it’s coming and we may not let that stop us.

Josh Hunt – $164,100

It’s been really disappointing pre-season actually. We could just be talking ourselves into this because he is so cheap. Maybe it was our initial excitement about his price that has kept us going this far..? He’s never averaged over 70, but an average of 60 is not bad at that price. In the backs we really have to take what we can get.

Matt Suckling – $158,200

He’s played all four games and also been upgraded to the senior list at the end of last season. He’s scoring reasonably well and could improve as he get’s used to the pace. It is a hefty amount to pay for a guy who has only one proper game to his name though. Buyer beware, I’m not convinced he is in the best 22.

Beau Waters – $152,800

Bargain-Beau has done everything right i the pre-season. His average of 69.3 is right up there and he should get a game in round one. In his favor is the fact he has done it before, averaging 78.6 in 2007. The problem is that Beau plays the game with no concern for his own well-being. Don’t get me wrong, I respect and love that about him, but it makes his injury risk much higher than normal human beings.

Mitch Farmer – $115,000

Has played every game in the pre-season and is capable of moving into the midfield. His average of 41  so far would suggest he has not been playing there recently though. If he get’s named round one, he is a worth a punt for those who need him for their structure.

Matt Maguire – $101,700

Very few teams are going in without Matty. Most are convinced he’ll score well if he plays and he featured in the best when he scored his 70. Why on earth did Lyon choose Dawson over this guy..? I guess Lyon has bigger mistakes to worry about now… Get on.

Jordan Lisle – $94,500

Jordan is a defender who can also go forward. He is also fortunate enough to be over 190cm and listed as an uninjured Hawthorn player. This means he may well be the back-up ruckman in round one. I’d still ignore him, but he scored a 67 in his 1st NAB game. If he impresses while the other ruckman are injured, he make stay in as a backman when they return.

Ban Nason – $89,500

He had one good game in the pre-season and he is very lucky to be on this list. He only makes it because, at 179cm, he’s too small to shut down anybody in the AFL. Therefore, he should be out there chasing possessions for himself. He’s also aged 20, some would say this helps his cause.

Jeremy Webberley – $89,500

See Ben Nason, except he’s 2cm taller and one year older.

Alex Silvagni – $77,800

Still a rookie, so wait for confirmation, but he’s actually scored okay for a shutdown defender. Fremantle appear to like him as part of their structure, so if he gets in, he may stay for the full 22 weeks. Given that many deranged coaches saw value in Prestigiacomo last year, I find it hard to see why those crazy people wouldn’t jump on Alex. Apparently, he can swing forward as well if they need him to. He would have to be a better option than McPharlin or Tarrant in a crisis wouldn’t he..?